Pratt's 78% odds miss mark as LA primary ends

Prediction markets have become a visible feature of the 2026 midterm election cycle. These platforms allow users to buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of future political events. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission defines them as such trading venues.

In the recent Los Angeles mayoral primary, millions of dollars were wagered on Spencer Pratt. The former reality television star had never held elective office. Market participants assigned him a 78 percent chance of advancing to the November runoff. The market was incorrect. Pratt finished third in the race.

Richard Witmer, a government and political science professor at Creighton University, compares political betting to sports wagering. He describes the activity as having a little skin in the game. "They're just betting on a team, is it going to be this team, that team, this candidate, that candidate," Witmer said. "So it's just having a little skin in the game, having a little fun with the markets."

Witmer notes a technical difference between these markets and traditional polling. Political polls ask a snapshot question about who would win if the election were held today. Prediction markets ask a binary question about whether a specific person will win. "What prediction markets do is say, do you think this person is going to win, yes or no, which is a different question," he said.

Critics worry that markets may cause confusion or that they can be manipulated. Witmer argues that most voters rely on party affiliation, issues, and personal finances rather than trading platforms. He cites the price of gas as a key factor. "If it's $4-a-gallon gas, that probably has much more of an influence than whether Kalshi or Polymarket or some of these others are all of a sudden predicting an outcome," Witmer said.

The impact of these markets on voter decision-making remains unmeasured. Witmer plans to examine the data after the election is over. He intends to ask voters directly if the markets affected their thinking. "Did the markets affect your thinking about how you were going to vote?" he said.

The next major step in the Los Angeles race is the runoff election scheduled for November. The outcome will provide a data point for observers tracking the accuracy of political prediction markets in high-stakes local contests.