Eisenkot leads polls by four seats as Israeli polls close

Israeli voters finished casting ballots Tuesday evening in a Knesset election that will determine the country's leadership three years after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. Final polling data published Friday indicates that the opposition bloc led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot holds a four-seat advantage over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition.

According to Haaretz, which compiled data from Israeli news channels 11, 12, and 13, Eisenkot's grouping is projected to secure 54 seats. Netanyahu's bloc is predicted to win 50 seats. A majority in the 120-seat parliament requires 61 seats, meaning neither side currently holds the threshold for independent rule.

The election took place against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and domestic scrutiny of the government's performance. Netanyahu faces questions regarding the failures that preceded the October 7 attack, the handling of captive retrieval efforts, alleged corruption, and disputes over ultra-Orthodox military service. The vote also occurred as violence in the occupied West Bank escalated and military engagements with neighboring states continued.

Polls opened at 7:00 a.m. local time and closed at 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday. Approximately 7.3 million Israelis were eligible to vote, including 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Residents living abroad were excluded from the vote because the country does not offer a general absentee ballot system, requiring physical presence at polling stations. Diplomats and state emissaries cast their ballots earlier, on October 20, at Israeli missions.

Exit poll results are expected to be broadcast by news channels within hours of the polls closing. The Central Elections Committee website will also publish live results. While a preliminary picture of the seat distribution may emerge quickly, the final tally is not scheduled to be completed until Friday, October 30. Official election results will be formally published on November 4.

Israel uses a proportional representation system where voters select a single party rather than individual candidates. Party seat allocation is directly tied to the percentage of the national vote received. A party must secure at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter the Knesset. About a dozen parties are expected to clear this threshold, which will extend the time required for accurate seat allocation.

Once the final count is verified, President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders to identify the candidate best positioned to form a government. The nominated leader has up to 42 days to assemble a coalition. No single party in Israel has ever won an outright majority, so governments are typically formed through multi-party negotiations that often span several weeks.

If neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu can secure a workable coalition, the current cabinet will remain in place as a caretaker government. Political leaders may attempt to form minority governments or negotiate power-sharing arrangements with rival parties. If all negotiation efforts fail, new elections will be called.