Israel Election: Netanyahu faces Eisenkot in vote over Iran strategy

One of the deepest security crises in Israel's history is the backdrop for Tuesday's general election, the first vote since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is running for re-election against Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff and leader of the centrist party Yashar. The race has tightened into a direct contest between the two men as the country weighs its path forward in the regional conflict.

US President Donald Trump publicly backed Netanyahu, calling him a warrior prime minister in an online post. Trump warned that if Israel chose a different leader, the United States would have to handle the Iran conflict alone. He stated, "If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi, America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so." Despite this public support, media reports suggest a disconnect between the two governments regarding military timing.

The Financial Times reported that the Israeli military planned new strikes on Iran's nuclear and energy sites around October 10. Trump opposed this escalation before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3. The Jerusalem Post later challenged this account, noting that the army had no specific directive for such an operation at the time.

Raz Zimmt, who heads the Iran program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told DW that political differences between the two candidates regarding the Iranian threat are minor. He argued that any military escalation depends more on the US president's decision than on the identity of Israel's prime minister. Zimmt said he does not expect dramatic changes in Israeli policy toward Iran or its proxies, regardless of which government emerges from the vote.

Danny Citrinovitch, a senior fellow at the same institute, agreed that the election outcome will not bring fundamental shifts. He noted that even if Netanyahu leaves power, the policies and influence he built over recent years will persist. Navid Toobian of the Middle East Media Research Institute in the US traced the current consensus on Iran back to the 2023 attack. Before that event, many believed Israel could manage the conflict with limited force, but the strike changed that calculation.

Damon Golriz, a researcher at the Hague Institute for Geopolitics, described the October 7 attack as the largest historical trauma for the Jewish nation since the Holocaust. He said current US and Israeli policy follows three vectors: removing the regime's leaders, causing industrial collapse, and orchestrating civil war to dismember Iran with the help of separatist groups. Golriz also pointed to a diplomatic opportunity missed in Islamabad six months ago, where Iran agreed not to initiate war against Israel.

Tehran has prepared detailed plans for retaliatory strikes, according to senior Iranian security officials cited by Reuters. These plans include destroying undersea fiber-optic cables in the Persian Gulf and targeting US-dependent data centers. While Golriz believes the Islamabad Memorandum could lead to lasting peace with political will, Citrinovitch remains skeptical. He stated that returning to the nuclear deal currently has no place in Israel's political arena.

The election results will determine who leads the next government, but analysts suggest the core approach to Iran will remain largely unchanged. The next step is the vote itself, which will define the leadership structure for the country's response to the ongoing crisis.