Experts warn next U.S. Iran war phase starts after Nov. 3 vote

U.S. and Israeli forces may resume strikes on Iran immediately after the November 3 midterm elections, according to Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst with the Institute for National Security Studies. Citrinowicz, who spent two decades in Israeli military intelligence, described a renewed conflict as almost inevitable once the ballots are counted.

He predicts the third phase of the war will be more destructive than the first two. Citrinowicz expects attacks on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also sees a possibility that Iran will send land troops into Kuwait and Bahrain to strike U.S. bases and damage the American economy.

The two nations have already fought two wars in the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with 12 days of strikes on nuclear sites. Fighting returned in February when Israel targeted senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following a large U.S. military buildup.

Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The war has also killed 21 U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis. Casualties have been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran targets commercial ships. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran of inflating oil prices to hurt him before the midterms. He claimed Iran was making up fake hits and mines on Truth Social. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks aim to pressure Washington.

Iranian officials seek sanctions relief, reparations for strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have failed to restart talks. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah may retaliate against airports and other soft economic targets.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Trump lacks a clear goal. He argued that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. Sadjadpour added that diplomacy remains possible but requires limited demands and clear economic pressure.