Mansfield: New Satellite Data Shows 9,000 Hectares of Poppies in Balochistan

Afghanistan was once the world's largest opium producer, but a ban issued by the Taliban in 2022 has forced a major shift in where the crop is grown. The industry is now moving across the border into Pakistan and Iran.

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on illicit drugs, wrote an August report for the British firm Alcis. The report uses satellite imagery and farmer interviews to map this shift. It identifies more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Pakistan's Balochistan province alone.

Mansfield states that the Taliban ban, combined with instability in the tri-border area, created conditions for widespread farming in Pakistan's Balochistan and Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan. He describes these remote borderlands as a new global center for opium production. Experts warn that cultivation could rise further in 2027, boosting heroin supplies and funding armed groups.

The expansion is centered in Loralai and Killa Abdullah districts. Abdul Qahar Wadan, a former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah, says cultivation is rampant and backed by senior military officials and pro-government power brokers who take commissions from growers. Monawar Hussain, the district's chief administrative officer, rejects this claim. He says cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year, but Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of that removal.

An anonymous farmer in Killa Abdullah says growers pay bribes to local authorities through intermediaries. He claims that when media attention increases, growers plant poppies on barren land so officials can destroy the crop and publicize the effort. Lala Jan Kakar, another resident, notes that insecurity, drought, and flash floods have hurt traditional fruit farming. He says the demand and income from poppies are much higher than from fruits.

Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand are leasing land in Pakistan, bringing money and expertise. Kakar notes they invest millions of Pakistani rupees in solar-powered wells and share profits with local landowners. Many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield calls this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern exists in Iran, where Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers. Sistan-Baluchistan remains the main producing region. Satellite imagery shows extensive fields there, some using drip irrigation. This costly investment suggests growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication. Mansfield describes a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture in these regions.

Inside Afghanistan, opium cultivation is rebounding in northeastern Badakhshan Province and several southwestern provinces. Mansfield says southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, though it stayed concealed within wheat fields and behind compound walls. A new Taliban directive bars home searches for poppy without a court order. Mansfield warns this concession may lead to a dramatic rise in production in 2027.