Serbia's October 25 vote tests Vucic amid 500,000 flawed voter records

Aleksandar Vucic faces his most competitive electoral challenge in fourteen years as Serbia prepares for parliamentary elections on October 25. The former president, who stepped down in late September to avoid a third term, now seeks the prime minister post he held from 2014 to 2017. His ruling party will compete against an opposition movement that emerged from widespread student protests.

Scrutiny of the electoral process has intensified after RFE/RL's Balkan Service identified approximately 500,000 registered voters lacking complete addresses. Many of these records are missing street names or house numbers. The investigation also found hundreds of voters listed at public facilities such as social welfare centers, as well as residential addresses that could not logically accommodate that many people.

The timing of the vote coincides with the second anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy, where a collapsed railway station canopy killed sixteen people on November 1, 2024. The disaster sparked nationwide protests over corruption in a Chinese-led construction project. Authorities responded with police force and arrests, including a March 15, 2025 incident involving an alleged unlawful sonic weapon against demonstrators.

Polling indicates the electorate is deeply divided between the ruling coalition and the student movement. Vladimir Bilcik, a former European Parliament rapporteur, described the upcoming vote as the first in over a decade with a genuinely uncertain outcome. The opposition list is headed by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, though the movement stated his position does not guarantee a premiership if they win.

The government claims it implemented all recommendations from the OSCE following its 2023 election criticism. However, an interim report from the OSCE, which deployed 300 observers to Serbia, contradicted this assertion. RFE/RL investigations noted that the number of eligible voters in Bosnia and Kosovo increased ahead of the vote, regions considered key sources of support for Vucic's Progressive Party.

Allegations of illegal surveillance further complicate the political climate. A statement from the US Senate's Foreign Relations Committee on October 21 cited reports of illegal monitoring of opposition members. Research by the Serbian nonprofit SHARE and Toronto University researchers alleged that at least sixteen cases of the Pegasus surveillance software, which is illegal in Serbia, were used in 2026. Government officials have denied targeting their political rivals.

International observers have noted a decline in freedoms in Serbia over the past decade. Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally expressed support for Vucic ahead of the election. During the campaign, Vucic pledged to maintain his foreign policy course, including his refusal to follow EU calls for sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Serbia's progress in EU integration has stalled, with no new accession chapter opened since late 2021.