61 Mandates: The Threshold for a Potential Israeli Cabinet Overhaul

US President Donald Trump’s inner circle is actively promoting the formation of a broad, moderate Israeli unity government that would exclude National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.

This push is being led by figures close to the president, including a recent public appeal from Bill Ackman. Ackman, who runs the hedge fund Pershing Square and supported Trump in the presidential election, argued on social media that removing these two ministers is necessary to restore Israel’s international standing. He stated that their presence damages global perceptions and hinders efforts to expand the Abraham Accords and improve relations with both US political parties.

The motivation for this diplomatic effort is rooted in Trump’s remaining two years in office. Several Washington sources believe that key Middle East initiatives, particularly a historic normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, depend on changing the makeup of Israel’s government. Riyadh has specific demands, including tangible progress on the Palestinian issue, which makes the current cabinet configuration a potential obstacle to an agreement.

Tensions between Washington and Jerusalem have already surfaced on multiple fronts. Special Envoy Tom Barrick disagrees with Israel’s approach to Syria, while officials around Secretary of State Marco Rubio have voiced frustration over inaction regarding Jewish violence in Judea and Samaria. Additionally, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly frustrated by the pace at which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is moving on Trump’s Gaza plan.

To resolve these dynamics, some in Trump’s circle are floating a rotation deal. Under this proposal, Netanyahu would serve as prime minister for the first year, after which another leader would take over to negotiate with Saudi Arabia before Trump’s term ends. Supporters argue this provides initial continuity while eventually placing regional diplomacy in the hands of a leader not tied to Netanyahu’s current partners.

Israeli and American sources indicate that Netanyahu told Trump he desires a unity government and intends to work toward one after the upcoming election. Israel’s Ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, confirmed that Netanyahu prefers a national unity government and has stated he would not serve as national security minister again. However, Yashar party chairman Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett remain opposed to serving under Netanyahu, and US officials have not yet raised the framework with them.

The path to a new government remains politically complex. If Netanyahu’s bloc wins 61 mandates, he would likely get the first chance to form a government, but it is doubtful that Eisenkot or Bennett would join. Ultra-Orthodox parties are demanding the passage of the conscription bill before coalition talks begin. If the right-wing bloc falls short of a majority, Netanyahu may not be given the first opportunity to form a government at all.