Lula retakes lead in Brazil runoff as 50% of votes counted

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reclaimed the lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by the time half of the runoff ballots had been counted on Sunday. The surge occurred as votes from the northeast, a region where the left typically performs well, began to arrive at the federal electoral court.

Lula started the count with a strong showing. Bolsonaro briefly overtook him, but Lula snapped back by 8:30 p.m. in Brasília. Pollsters attributed the shift to higher-than-expected voter turnout. Andrei Roman, CEO of AtlasIntel, told Reuters that Lula would be re-elected. Allies of the president began declaring victory on social media before the court officially named a winner.

The count was interrupted by a ruling from Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin. Zanin, who previously served as Lula’s lawyer, accepted the campaign’s request to extend voting hours in several states. He cited issues with public transportation in three cities in the state of Bahia. The decision arrived near the 5 p.m. Brasília cutoff, creating confusion at polling stations that had already closed.

Zanin later clarified that stations already closed would remain shut so their votes could be tallied. Stations still open could continue receiving voters for two additional hours. This ruling led the Superior Electoral Court, or TSE, to pause the national count for two hours. Lula had requested extensions in at least nine states after alleging officials reduced election-day transit options. Flávio Bolsonaro also sought extensions in three states due to bad weather.

A court in Salvador, Bahia, ordered the arrest of a top transportation official on Sunday. The order stemmed from allegations that the official directed a reduction in the city’s bus fleet on election day. Lula described the situation as "something abominable" before Zanin’s final decision. The voting extension injects uncertainty into a process still affected by the 2022 election, where Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat. His supporters invaded government buildings in protest, and Bolsonaro later received a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup.

Constitutional lawyer Vera Chemim of São Paulo told Reuters that the losing side might contest the outcome. She argued that many people may have been unable to vote even with the extended deadline. Eduardo Bolsonaro, the senator’s brother, questioned the legal basis for the Supreme Court’s intervention in a process overseen by the electoral court. Speaking on a live stream, he asked, "Strange, isn’t it?" and added that the move "doesn’t inspire credibility."

In Washington, President Donald Trump said his administration was watching the results. He declined to endorse a candidate, stating, "I don’t want to get into that, but we are watching." Reuters reported on Saturday that a campaign within the State Department sought to help the Bolsonaros return to power. Lula’s allies view the runoff as a chance to stem a conservative shift in Latin America.