Shi'ites Back Army Over Hezbollah, Poll

Sixty-six point four percent of Lebanese Shi'ites now support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the state, according to a September poll released in mid-October. The survey, conducted by Statistics Lebanon among 800 respondents, marks a distinct shift from earlier data that showed overwhelming resistance to disarmament. Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org reported the findings on October 24.

The data reveals a strong preference for state authority over military decisions. Seventy-one point one percent of respondents said war and peace decisions should rest exclusively with the Lebanese government. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. This sentiment aligns with high confidence in the Lebanese Armed Forces, which 78.5% of respondents said they trust.

When asked to identify the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security, 51.1% named the army. Only 16.5% selected Hezbollah. This result challenges the group's traditional claim to represent the security interests of the Shi'ite community. The findings suggest a growing willingness to place the arsenal under state control rather than keeping it within the militant organization.

Sentiment toward Hezbollah's performance remains mixed. Sixty-seven point four percent said the group failed to meet its goals or only partially succeeded in the war with Israel. Forty-two point one percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding its leadership and the conflict's consequences. Despite these criticisms, 59.5% still expressed some level of trust in the organization. KAN analyst Roi Kais noted that Hezbollah's support networks and the status it provides the sect continue to sustain its strength.

The current results contrast sharply with a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That earlier poll found 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, with only 7.9% supporting the transfer of weapons. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, writing for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies in June, argued that differences in survey wording or agenda may account for the divergence. They maintained that Hezbollah's influence relies on social networks, political power, and historical marginalization.

Local indicators suggest wariness persists in southern Lebanon. In Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it could become a target in an Israeli strike. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those elsewhere. The group has suffered major losses, including the killing of leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024 and heavy destruction in southern villages during a new war that began in March 2026.