Texas Border: Hispanic Support for Trump Falls in New Polls

Donald Trump secured a historic 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, a performance that relied heavily on support in the Rio Grande Valley. New polling data released in the days leading up to the November 3 midterm election indicates that much of this backing has eroded. Surveys conducted since late summer show a majority of Hispanic voters in the state now disapprove of the president. Democrats in the region hold a lead over Republicans by a wide margin in these recent estimates.

The shift is visible in communities that helped deliver Trump his record showing. In McAllen, Republican Mayor Javier Villalobos acknowledged the difficulty of the upcoming race. He noted that while many residents accept the removal of criminal immigrants, the treatment of law-abiding residents is a primary source of discontent. Local business leaders echo these sentiments. Mario Guerrero, president of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump in all three of his presidential bids. He plans to support a Democrat in November, citing a lack of clarity regarding the administration's enforcement strategies.

Guerrero’s experience reflects a broader economic concern in the border region. He described an acquaintance whose construction crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to between four and six employees. This labor shortage illustrates the tension between border security goals and the method of enforcement. Republican consultant Mike Madrid pointed out that Latino voters are more likely to identify as independents than any other demographic group, suggesting their allegiance is transactional rather than partisan.

The political implications are most acute in Texas’s 15th congressional district. Republicans redrew the district’s map in 2025 to create an 18-point majority for their party. Current polling, however, shows a Democratic lead of five to six points. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a two-time Latin Grammy winner, has campaigned on local economic issues rather than national party branding. He emphasized the distinct economic reality of the border region, distinguishing it from coastal cities like New York or Los Angeles.

At a local avocado festival, voters cited the cost of living as their top concern. Residents Dave Baldwin and Veronica Salazar attributed rising prices to the president’s policies. Baldwin stated that the current administration is not managing the economic situation effectively. On the Republican side, campaigners admit they are facing challenges. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the election as a contest of voter turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, conceded that national political headwinds are affecting local races.

If these polling numbers hold, the result could extend beyond the 15th district. A modest swing toward Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley could put a US Senate seat in play. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Texas in more than 30 years. The region’s shift signals a potential reversal of the trend that helped Trump win the presidency in 2024.