Early votes surge ahead of midterms

Voters across the United States have cast more than 43 million early ballots or returned mail votes, a figure nearly 10 million higher than at the same point in the 2022 midterm election. An Associated Press analysis released five days before Election Day shows this rise in participation is particularly steep in states deciding competitive Senate races.

Texas, which hosts closely watched contests for governor, Senate, and House seats, has seen the sharpest growth. As of Wednesday, more than 6.3 million Texans had voted early, compared to 4.2 million four years ago. This represents a 50 percent increase in advance turnout. In Harris County, home to Houston, 862,700 people had cast ballots by Wednesday, up from 564,500 in 2022.

Other Senate battlegrounds also report substantial gains. Early voting in Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Kansas is up more than 30 percent from the same period in 2022. South Carolina, where voters are selecting a successor to the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has seen early turnout rise by 83 percent.

Nationwide, the data covers 47 states and Washington, D.C. In jurisdictions that report party affiliation, approximately 6.8 million Democrats and 5.2 million Republicans have already voted. These numbers do not account for all early voters or indicate specific candidate preferences. The election will determine control of Congress two years into President Donald Trump’s second term, with Republicans currently holding both chambers.

Texas Democrats are contesting seats that have leaned Republican for decades. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris defeated Trump in the state by nearly 6 percentage points, while Democratic Senate candidate Colin Allred won Harris County by roughly 11 percentage points over Sen. Ted Cruz. This year, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico for the Senate, and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott seeks reelection against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.

Campaign spending in the Texas Senate race has reached hundreds of millions of dollars as Republicans attempt to hold a state where Democrats have not won a statewide election in more than 30 years. President Trump visited Texas earlier this week, marking his third trip to the state in one month. The two-week early in-person voting period in Texas ends Friday.

The surge in advance voting provides a baseline for what is expected to be a high-turnout election. The AP data indicates that a large portion of the electorate is completing their civic duty before Election Day, reducing the pressure on polling places on the final day.