Tied in polls, Lula turns to Rio beach for final push

Tens of thousands of red-clad supporters packed Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday.

The gathering marked the final day of campaigning before a presidential runoff scheduled for Sunday.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro in a contest that polls show is effectively tied.

Close to 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote. The election follows a first round held on 4 October, where Bolsonaro secured 47% of the vote and Lula captured 45%.

Historical data indicates that no candidate who lost the first round has won the runoff since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s. A victory for Lula would mark the first time this has occurred.

The campaign timeline shifted in recent weeks as Lula climbed in the polls amid scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí reported that Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists during the height of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak. The report described the attendees as seeking a deal with his father's government.

Jair Bolsonaro, the father of the candidate, served as president from 2019 to 2022. He is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Some democrats fear he could be freed or return to government if his son wins. Brazilian press reports suggest that several of his fellow plotters, now jailed or in exile, could receive senior military and police posts if Bolsonaro takes office.

Supporters on the beach cited these stakes in their attendance. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, said her opposition was to "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right as a whole. She stated that she lost four relatives because of Jair Bolsonaro's neglect during the pandemic. Truck driver Josias Silva, 61, carried a sign predicting Lula would win more than 60% of the vote, a figure higher than current polling data suggests.

In Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in Praça da Liberdade to support Bolsonaro. The state holds the country's second-largest electorate. No candidate has won the presidency without carrying Minas Gerais. Bolsonaro led the state by just under 5% in the first round. Supporters there focused on security, noting that Jair Bolsonaro loosened gun laws while Lula has tightened them.

Voting begins on Sunday. The outcome will determine the next president of Brazil in a race that analysts describe as a dead heat.