Brazil Election: Final Poll Shows 1.3 Point Gap Before Sunday Vote

A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 45 percent in the Brazilian presidential race. The 1.3 point gap falls within the survey's margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. This result follows a previous reading from a week earlier that showed Bolsonaro leading 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent.

The data indicates a tightly contested election that will be decided on Sunday. The run-off determines whether Brazil retains its current left-wing government or shifts further to the right, a trend observed across the region. Lula is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office. His opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, is a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

In the first round of voting, Flavio Bolsonaro received 47 percent of the vote compared to 45 percent for Lula. Recent surveys suggest the contest has remained nearly level since then. The candidates spent Saturday holding their final public appearances before voting begins.

Lula, who is 80 years old, addressed hundreds of people at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. He wore a red hat and waved a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck. He referenced his rival's relationship with US President Donald Trump, stating, "The people must choose either someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag."

Flavio Bolsonaro's supporters gathered in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. The event featured hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts. Ebert Dorigo, one of the attendees, told the news agency AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had encouraged dependence on government welfare. He argued that the country needed a change in direction, stating, "The values we uphold are nation and family."

The campaign has highlighted deep divisions over economic policy and crime. Bolsonaro has pledged to create hundreds of thousands of new prison places and reduce government spending. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, who served as president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The two candidates held a final debate on Friday, where they maintained a calmer tone while trading accusations about the economy.

Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the voting decision to AFP as a choice between two difficult options. She said, "If there were any other candidate, that would be a better option. But we're stuck choosing between the worst, the horrible, and the lesser evil."